Retailing: Today There Are Winners Too

14th May, 2012

Mike and I spent a pleasant day in Scotland last week, trying to spread the gospel that not all secondary retail property is tertiary and that the secret (OK hardly secret) to making decent returns in retail property over the medium term is to be on the right end of the emerging polarisation in the market.

This article in The Independent backs up our investment strategy to date, Piling on the Pound Shops Helps Ailing High Streets.

Mark Comes Out as a Twit(errer)

12th May, 2012

Despite being largely hopeless at managing to keep on top of the blog, I have joined the growing army of twats twitterers (@ellandi_mark).  The reason given to Mrs R is that I needs to keep on top of the multi-faceded social media we are employing at all of our shopping centres, the real reason may be something more to do with my celebrity obsessions….

I can be found @ellandi_mark

In other last century technology news, I understand that Morgan might be joining Facebook for a some very odd reasons.

Location, Luck and Timing

15th March, 2012

As I have blogged before, the above triptych is more relevant than location, location, location when it comes to the most important three things in assessing a property opportunity.

In respect of Timing, I read a couple of things yesterday that made me look forward towards a potentially prosperous late middle age.

Firstly was John Plender’s statement of the bleedin’ obvious, which is still nonetheless true, that \”Another Property Boon and Bust Is Inevitable.\”

And second that Knight Frank research think we are still in the mid 90\’s in terms of this cycle.

Put these two thesis’s together and you have us selling out Ellandi in 2024 for a massive fortune; I’ll only be 53, still have my own teeth and will have plenty of time to embarrass keep an eye on my teenage kids in Ibiza.

Honest View of NewBuy Scheme

13th March, 2012

For a satirical website, the Daily Mash do economics well.

Bright Spark at Grays

28th February, 2012

Doing our bit for society and the environment, Grays is the first of our shopping centre’s to set the sparks flying and install solar panels.

Essex Shopping Centre Turns to Solar

Bill Gross seems to agree with me….

7th February, 2012

Followers of the Blog may have read that I am fearful of little or no market activity, a side effect of QE and ultra-low interest rates. Reading Bill Gross of PIMCO, demi-god amongst fixed income investors in this morning’s FT, he seems to agree with me.

Noted he makes a far more intellectual argument taking from leading economic theories, but he gets to the same place (its a bit heavy going but his piece is attached for those that are interested.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad537e88-4ccd-11e1-8741-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lcZx3tmt

Team Kettering is a ‘cut’ above the rest….

1st February, 2012

Ellandi hosted a, belated (and slightly alternative), celebration of acquiring the Newlands Centre in Kettering at the Ginger Pig Butchers.

Should you trust a group of surveyors, lawyers and general property spivs with super sharp meat cleaver and red wine - probably not but they did.

Under the careful guidance of master butchers, Perry and Borat (yes, really), we were shown how to carve up a cow. It appears that butchery and surgery are very similar skills. As Pete Mather commented - “I now appreciate my buthcher has more skills than I do.”

We all now know the difference between a Wing Rib and a Fore Rib and where to cut the best T-bone. We were even allowed loose on the meat ourselves and took home a French Dressed Rib butchered by our own hands. Quite handy with my in-laws coming this weekend.

Most importantly, we were fed a huge plate of beef washed down with red wine and followed with Chocolate Braed and Butter Pudding. There was some lettuce but I think everyone avoided that…..Safe to say that we were fat pigs at the Ginger Pig.

It was a great night out and a good way to thank everyone for all thier hard work on the Kettering acquisition. It was also great to report that things are going really well at Newlands.

If any carnivores fancy this www.thegingerpig.co.uk

A willing buyer and a willing seller?

1st February, 2012

The whole basis of the capitalist economic system is that there will be willing buyers and willing sellers. Demand and supply will see prices adjust until a price equilibrium is reached at which point buyers and seller will trade.

Unfortunately, in the property market today this equilibrium is missing. It seems to me that this is one of the unforeseen side effects of QE and the lowest interest rate environment that we have ever seen.

Vast amounts of the UK commercial property universe is now in negative equity, where this is not the case a further swathe is owned by funds that on paper have lost themselves, or more accurately their investors, a fortune. Theoretically this property should slowly be recycled through the market, as investors and banks recover what they can and move on to other opportunities but, like rain water falling on a glacier, capital is being frozen up and seemingly removed from the market.

One of the key factors facilitating this is negative real interest rates. Banks are funding themselves via central bank liquidity at nominal rates so they have limited funding pressure to de-leverage and dispose of their real estate loan books. Simultaneously funds are not seeing investors withdraw capital, despite often abysmal performance, as re-investing the capital anywhere that offers any yield is incredibly hard.

There is fresh equity desperate to invest in many asset classes, including real estate, but there is limited available opportunity to invest at what is deemed the appropriate risk weighted return in today’s rather gloomy world.

So the demand and supply lines that always converged in my economic text books are now refusing to meet one another. If willing buyers and the willing sellers rarely meet there can not be any volume of tranasctional activity.

What is anything will break this cycle?

My hope was that governments would start to ween the banks off state funded liquidity, potentially in order to have the capital to fund a rescue of the Euro. This would force banks to reappraise their balance sheets, partially to meet new regulatory capital regimes but more importantly to win the faith in the market required to be able to fund themselves.

True market funding costs will be far higher than banks are currently paying for central bank liquidity. This will create two opportunities; investors will be offered a return on investing capital so they would start to trade out of legacy assets to reinvest in better priced opportunities and bank’s will look at the poor returns generated from legacy loan positions and opt to exit them in order to reduce their funding requirements and maximise return on equity.

The return to rational economic decision making would create a convergence of the supply and demand lines and the market could begin to function again. It matters little at what price this is achieved as long as there is activity. The property industry is far more reliant on the volume of activity than it is as to the value of the transactions.

I had high hopes that this would happen in 2012 but with the ECB announcing it will make even more funds available (€1trillion mooted by Goldman) to bank’s in their February money auction it seems that I may be very wrong. See here.

I fear that we may be a frustrated buyer for a good while longer.

A new year, a new addition

1st February, 2012

We are delighted to be building the Ellandi team further with the addition of Jaya Sabnani.

Jaya graduated from The University of Westminster in 2008 with a BSc in Urban Estate Management. She has subsequently spent three years working in the property team at Harrow Council.

Initially Jaya will be assisting across all parts of the business and having been responsible for process re-engineering many parts of Harrow’s housing function I am sure she will also be knocking us into shape on the admin front.

Jaya is also a keen blogger so expect to hear from her shortly on the Ellandi blog.

Part II (read Part I first)

20th January, 2012

In 1994 Thomas Neal’s Yard Shopping Centre in Covent Garden was pretty much completely vacant, save for a restaurant in the basement.

I hired the entire shopping centre for my 23rd birthday party one saturday night.

It cost me £120 for the doormen, but was free as long as we promised to spend £500 behind the bar.

Strangely enough, even I got lucky.