Team Kettering is a ‘cut’ above the rest….

1st February, 2012

Ellandi hosted a, belated (and slightly alternative), celebration of acquiring the Newlands Centre in Kettering at the Ginger Pig Butchers.

Should you trust a group of surveyors, lawyers and general property spivs with super sharp meat cleaver and red wine - probably not but they did.

Under the careful guidance of master butchers, Perry and Borat (yes, really), we were shown how to carve up a cow. It appears that butchery and surgery are very similar skills. As Pete Mather commented - “I now appreciate my buthcher has more skills than I do.”

We all now know the difference between a Wing Rib and a Fore Rib and where to cut the best T-bone. We were even allowed loose on the meat ourselves and took home a French Dressed Rib butchered by our own hands. Quite handy with my in-laws coming this weekend.

Most importantly, we were fed a huge plate of beef washed down with red wine and followed with Chocolate Braed and Butter Pudding. There was some lettuce but I think everyone avoided that…..Safe to say that we were fat pigs at the Ginger Pig.

It was a great night out and a good way to thank everyone for all thier hard work on the Kettering acquisition. It was also great to report that things are going really well at Newlands.

If any carnivores fancy this www.thegingerpig.co.uk

A willing buyer and a willing seller?

1st February, 2012

The whole basis of the capitalist economic system is that there will be willing buyers and willing sellers. Demand and supply will see prices adjust until a price equilibrium is reached at which point buyers and seller will trade.

Unfortunately, in the property market today this equilibrium is missing. It seems to me that this is one of the unforeseen side effects of QE and the lowest interest rate environment that we have ever seen.

Vast amounts of the UK commercial property universe is now in negative equity, where this is not the case a further swathe is owned by funds that on paper have lost themselves, or more accurately their investors, a fortune. Theoretically this property should slowly be recycled through the market, as investors and banks recover what they can and move on to other opportunities but, like rain water falling on a glacier, capital is being frozen up and seemingly removed from the market.

One of the key factors facilitating this is negative real interest rates. Banks are funding themselves via central bank liquidity at nominal rates so they have limited funding pressure to de-leverage and dispose of their real estate loan books. Simultaneously funds are not seeing investors withdraw capital, despite often abysmal performance, as re-investing the capital anywhere that offers any yield is incredibly hard.

There is fresh equity desperate to invest in many asset classes, including real estate, but there is limited available opportunity to invest at what is deemed the appropriate risk weighted return in today’s rather gloomy world.

So the demand and supply lines that always converged in my economic text books are now refusing to meet one another. If willing buyers and the willing sellers rarely meet there can not be any volume of tranasctional activity.

What is anything will break this cycle?

My hope was that governments would start to ween the banks off state funded liquidity, potentially in order to have the capital to fund a rescue of the Euro. This would force banks to reappraise their balance sheets, partially to meet new regulatory capital regimes but more importantly to win the faith in the market required to be able to fund themselves.

True market funding costs will be far higher than banks are currently paying for central bank liquidity. This will create two opportunities; investors will be offered a return on investing capital so they would start to trade out of legacy assets to reinvest in better priced opportunities and bank’s will look at the poor returns generated from legacy loan positions and opt to exit them in order to reduce their funding requirements and maximise return on equity.

The return to rational economic decision making would create a convergence of the supply and demand lines and the market could begin to function again. It matters little at what price this is achieved as long as there is activity. The property industry is far more reliant on the volume of activity than it is as to the value of the transactions.

I had high hopes that this would happen in 2012 but with the ECB announcing it will make even more funds available (€1trillion mooted by Goldman) to bank’s in their February money auction it seems that I may be very wrong. See here.

I fear that we may be a frustrated buyer for a good while longer.

A new year, a new addition

1st February, 2012

We are delighted to be building the Ellandi team further with the addition of Jaya Sabnani.

Jaya graduated from The University of Westminster in 2008 with a BSc in Urban Estate Management. She has subsequently spent three years working in the property team at Harrow Council.

Initially Jaya will be assisting across all parts of the business and having been responsible for process re-engineering many parts of Harrow’s housing function I am sure she will also be knocking us into shape on the admin front.

Jaya is also a keen blogger so expect to hear from her shortly on the Ellandi blog.

Part II (read Part I first)

20th January, 2012

In 1994 Thomas Neal’s Yard Shopping Centre in Covent Garden was pretty much completely vacant, save for a restaurant in the basement.

I hired the entire shopping centre for my 23rd birthday party one saturday night.

It cost me £120 for the doormen, but was free as long as we promised to spend £500 behind the bar.

Strangely enough, even I got lucky.

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life… (Part I)

18th January, 2012

One of the few advantages of being middle aged is that you are old enough to know stuff, but not too old to start forgetting it (despite the havoc that a property lifestyle can have on your brain cells.)

So as matters lurch from bad to worse in the retail property market, I would like to bring a little perspective to bere as a man who started his career as a rookie retail agent in the equally as grim early 90’s.

Equally grim?   Surely some mistake?

However just as every generation thinks “this time is different,” that they have found the key to the secret money machine as they inflate the bubble, going the other way everyone thinks that their problems are uniquely exquisite in their terribleness.

However in my first few years of work the following happened:

-Next nearly went bust, their shares traded at 10p

-The Glades in Bromley, now one of South London’s best schemes, opened with 40% vacancy

-I couldn’t get shot of a prime, former River Island in Croydon, on the basis of a 5 year lease with 5 years rent free

Now clearly the last one maybe says more about my abilities as a retail agent than anything else, but I post other comparisons when I get the chance.

But in the meantime, keep smiling, what doesn’t kills you makes you stronger……

2012 Reasons to Be Cheerful

31st December, 2011

Well obviously not two thousand and twelve reasons to be cheerful, as due to my black, misanthropic, heart and frankly the need to look after the kids, I will limit my musing to just twelve sunshine-filled, positive thoughts for the New Year:

1) The London Olympics will be a great success, lifting the gloom of what will be a bloody awful spring.

2) Faced with the abyss of euro disintegration, Germany will blink and allow the ECB to “monetize.”

3)This will eventually lead to rampant inflation in Europe which is good for UK property (allegedly.) Hurrah!

4) Sunderland will win the FA cup, beating Chelsea 3-0 in the final.  Martin O’Neil Knighted for services to lost causes.

5) The death of High Street will have been grossly exaggerated; Ms Portas will claim sole credit.

6) The London residential market will continue to defy gravity (this is pure wishful thinking due to my purchase of a new house in 5 days time.)

7) The banks will start selling their defaulting loan positions into the market at realistic pricing (Morgan and I have been saying this for four years and we have got to be right eventually?  Please?)

8 ) Ellandi will move office; partly due to needing more space and largely due to needing aircon.

9) I will get my weight below 14 stone.  Even more unlikely than 4.

10) America will lead the West out of recession H2 based on a resurgent manufacturing base and self sufficiency in energy from shale gas and oil.  Obama being re-elected helps.

11) Kate and Wills get pregnant leading to a baby boom and recovery in Mothercare share price (Disclosure: The columnist may hold shares in the above company.)

12) My five year old son Joe learns to love to lie-in and no longer gets up every morning at 6.

If only banks were run like football clubs? (Surely some mistake?!)

30th November, 2011

At long last the powers that be have taken decisive action to head of a certain catastrophe.

No I don’t mean the co-ordinated actions of the central banks to provide unlimited dollar liquidity silly, no, Sunderland have sacked Steve Bruce.

Some media pundits (largely former team mates) will say he deserved more time and that the team he assembled in the summer needed time to gel, but any poor season ticket holder who has seen only two home wins in the calendar year, will tell you enough is enough.  Its not as if the the new chairman has been trigger happy (despite being from Texas), in the last two season Sunderland have had two major slumps in form that would have had Abramovich calling for the Spanish archer.

The publicity shy American that owns SAFC is called Ellis Short and he made his fortune as a partner at our friends Lone Star, the major property equity fund managers.

His pragmatic, but ultimately ruthless decision making was no doubt honed turning around defaulting loan portfolios of the kind that desperately need sorting out now.

Rugby

17th October, 2011

I don’t really want to talk about it!

All the genuine messages of support and condolence from the English are nice but can you all stop mentioning it now, please.

Front page of the Western Mail sum’s it up perfectly. wm-headline

Slightly more balanced that a headline on a Welsh paper yesterday that simply said “Alain Pierre Rolland.” The truth is we were still good enough to win with 14 men and can only blame ourselves when we missed so many kicks.

You have to be brave to be a goal kicker - it is glory or hell. I am still haunted by kicks I missed that cost games 15 years ago and none of those was in a world cup semi final. I hate to think what is going through Hook, Halfpenny and Jones’ head this week but the boys did great.

Lifting the world cup at Twickers in 2015 will make up for it…..

Ex-Banker Turns Bank-Basher

14th October, 2011

Not for the first time Morgan has today been described as punchy.

However this was not in respect of an altercation late at a rugby dinner, but in respect of his pulls-no-punches article in Property Week.

We are however quite confident that it is the first time his looks have ever been described as “smouldering.”

One of the deputy editors at PW needs to have a serious word with himself…..

Average Height of Ellandi Increased. Considerably.

11th October, 2011

We are genuinely delighted to welcome Mike Wimble to the team who is joining us from Cushman and Wakefiled Investors.  He has a lifetime of retail property experience that started agency, like Mark he is one of a select few who worked for both Churstons and Dalgleish, then moved client side to Halledale before moving up the quality curve to look after Centre MK.

The only slight drawback is that his appointment may invalidate our claim to be the shortest, but perfectly formed, Investment Management team in the UK.

Morgan commented “We may have to get him to flatten down his spiky hair, not cause he that much taller than us, honest, its just I don’t think its a suitable style for someone in his mid 30’s.  No, honest….”

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